V-Lab
Samba Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,798.39
increased by 3,099.49
1 Week
2,388.20
increased by 689.30
1 Month
1,132.11
decreased by 566.79
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 1997 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 28881 trading days (~114.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6494 | 0.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1645 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8355 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7649 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 3.2080 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -8.0996 | -0.63 |
| γ4 | 14.0784 | 0.07 |
| γ5 | -14.1349 | -0.08 |
| γ6 | 7.4616 | 0.09 |
| γ7 | -2.3068 | -0.07 |
| γ8 | 0.5325 | 0.03 |
| γ9 | 0.3349 | 0.03 |
| γ10 | -2.3878 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
28881 days
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