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Samba Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

4,798.39

increased by 3,099.49

1 Week

2,388.20

increased by 689.30

1 Month

1,132.11

decreased by 566.79

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Samba Bank Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 1997 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 28881 trading days (~114.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6494
0.48
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1645
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8355
0.19
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.7649
-0.01
γ23.2080
0.02
γ3-8.0996
-0.63
γ414.0784
0.07
γ5-14.1349
-0.08
γ67.4616
0.09
γ7-2.3068
-0.07
γ80.5325
0.03
γ90.3349
0.03
γ10-2.3878
-0.21

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

28881 days