V-Lab
CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,593.72
increased by 1,278.50
1 Week
3,326.95
increased by 11.73
1 Month
3,222.63
decreased by 92.59
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7461 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0456 | 7.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9489 | 122.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0665 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.0935 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | 0.0278 | 0.60 |
| γ4 | -0.2596 | -4.17*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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