V-Lab
CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,164.91
decreased by 146.83
1 Week
3,458.32
increased by 146.58
1 Month
3,243.04
decreased by 68.70
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7439 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0455 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9489 | 122.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0665 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.0932 | 1.67* |
| γ3 | 0.0286 | 0.62 |
| γ4 | -0.2584 | -4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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