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CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

3,309.24

decreased by 123.49

1 Week

3,428.03

decreased by 4.70

1 Month

3,369.55

decreased by 63.18

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7431
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0456
7.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9488
122.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0667
-1.81*
γ20.0932
1.66*
γ30.0293
0.63
γ4-0.2568
-4.11***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days