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CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

4,593.72

increased by 1,278.50

1 Week

3,326.95

increased by 11.73

1 Month

3,222.63

decreased by 92.59

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7461
4.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0456
7.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9489
122.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0665
-1.81*
γ20.0935
1.68*
γ30.0278
0.60
γ4-0.2596
-4.17***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days