V-Lab
CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,717.80
1 Week
5,053.07
1 Month
4,763.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 5.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9537 | 498.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0499 | -2.15** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9991 | 1,219.94*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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