V-Lab
Stroeer SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,534.38
decreased by 276.89
1 Week
4,787.28
decreased by 23.99
1 Month
4,635.73
decreased by 175.54
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2319 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 9.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8639 | 61.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3122 | -8.63*** |
| γ2 | 0.5051 | 10.01*** |
| γ3 | -0.2286 | -7.99*** |
| γ4 | 0.0282 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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