V-Lab
Savimex Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5,981.41
increased by 3,777.84
1 Week
5,981.41
increased by 3,777.84
1 Month
2,969.65
increased by 766.08
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2008 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 36481 trading days (~144.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4155 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1512 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8488 | 0.09 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1317 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -2.0540 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.7203 | 0.05 |
| γ4 | 0.3461 | 0.04 |
| γ5 | -0.2979 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 0.5414 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -4.4348 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | 9.8962 | 0.06 |
| γ9 | -7.2409 | -0.04 |
| γ10 | 1.5969 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
36481 days
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