Savimex Corporation ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
8,621.43
1 Week
2,632.83
1 Month
2,027.54
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 433 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1707 | 0.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8051 | 37.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0452 | 0.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.74 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0339 | 0.66 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9661 | 81.42*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
433 days
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