Ryerson Holding Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1,292.87
decreased by 122.53
1 Week
1,493.45
increased by 78.05
1 Month
1,682.52
increased by 267.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2322 | 5.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1072 | 12.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8882 | 106.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0253 | -1.72* |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2322 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1072 | 12.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8882 | 106.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0253 | -1.72* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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