V-Lab
Ryerson Holding Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
2,222.16
increased by 348.27
1 Week
1,740.67
decreased by 133.22
1 Month
1,801.94
decreased by 71.95
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2338 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1074 | 12.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8881 | 106.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0249 | -1.67* |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2338 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 12.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8881 | 106.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0249 | -1.67* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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