V-Lab
Rai Way S.p.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,887.99
increased by 1,347.34
1 Week
4,565.17
increased by 24.52
1 Month
3,862.89
decreased by 677.76
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3263 | 7.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0935 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 90.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0203 | -2.36** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
Other Rai Way S.p.A. Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities