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V-Lab

Rai Way S.p.A. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

5,976.98

increased by 1,822.68

1 Week

4,490.76

increased by 336.46

1 Month

3,976.27

decreased by 178.03

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Rai Way S.p.A. ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3406 trading days (~13.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 141% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
14.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
488.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0669
11.14***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3406 days