V-Lab
Rai Way S.p.A. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,976.98
increased by 1,822.68
1 Week
4,490.76
increased by 336.46
1 Month
3,976.27
decreased by 178.03
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3406 trading days (~13.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 141% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 14.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 488.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0669 | 11.14*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3406 days
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