RP Optical LAB Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 11th, 2026
1 Day
3,481.95
increased by 142.32
1 Week
3,648.40
increased by 308.77
1 Month
4,666.73
increased by 1,327.10
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9466 | 5.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1692 | 4.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8110 | 18.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.7544 | -1.18 |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9466 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 4.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8110 | 18.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.7544 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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