V-Lab
RP Optical LAB Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,758.70
1 Week
6,131.52
1 Month
4,989.16
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 06:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 109% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0830 | 8.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8720 | 81.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0901 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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