Republic Power Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
234,971.20
increased by 73,276.90
1 Week
209,695.40
increased by 48,001.10
1 Month
306,420.62
increased by 144,726.32
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7090 | 6.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.5341 | 6.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0606 | 0.78 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7977 | -0.81 |
0.595
Persistence1d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7090 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5341 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0606 | 0.78 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7977 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.595
Half-life:
1 days
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