Republic Power Group Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
120,149.70
1 Week
116,844.80
1 Month
102,127.39
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
| βGARCH | 0.7450 | 5,601.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 2,057.61*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0198 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0103 | 11.17*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9897 | 202.57*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7450 | 5,601.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 2,057.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0198 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0103 | 11.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9897 | 202.57*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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