V-Lab
MIDWEST ENERGY Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
14,755.24
increased by 10,358.87
1 Week
6,574.31
increased by 2,177.94
1 Month
3,159.06
decreased by 1,237.31
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 6, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2686 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5659 | 6.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3326 | 4.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -15.4630 | -1.78* |
| γ2 | 22.9308 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -25.1638 | -3.75*** |
| γ4 | 28.4704 | 4.92*** |
| γ5 | -6.6261 | -1.11 |
| γ6 | -2.5223 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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