V-Lab
MIDWEST ENERGY Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
3,954.36
increased by 219.30
1 Week
3,750.21
increased by 15.15
1 Month
3,147.06
decreased by 588.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 6, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 345% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0186 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9448 | 335.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0644 | 10.97*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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