V-Lab
Rocky Brands Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,331.63
increased by 80.81
1 Week
5,379.24
increased by 128.42
1 Month
6,054.43
increased by 803.61
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3108 trading days (~12.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8384 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0987 | 11.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9011 | 103.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.7964 | -2.89*** |
| γ2 | 1.3067 | 3.77*** |
| γ3 | -1.4226 | -9.34*** |
| γ4 | 1.9607 | 10.39*** |
| γ5 | -1.5079 | -7.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.5020 | 2.71*** |
| γ7 | -0.0872 | -0.51 |
| γ8 | 0.1741 | 1.15 |
| γ9 | -0.3549 | -1.88* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3108 days
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