Rana Sugars Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
6,363.16
increased by 1,015.15
1 Week
5,050.50
decreased by 297.51
1 Month
4,049.80
decreased by 1,298.21
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2007 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 783 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~783 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1385 | 6.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1632 | 12.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8359 | 61.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0126 | -1.47 |
0.999
Persistence783d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1385 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1632 | 12.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8359 | 61.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0126 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
783 days
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