Rana Sugars Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
7,557.59
increased by 1,308.45
1 Week
5,848.43
decreased by 400.71
1 Month
4,646.17
decreased by 1,602.97
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2007 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2139 trading days (~8.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 88% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2139 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 88% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.01 |
| αARCH | 0.1022 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8524 | 69.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0902 | 4.89*** |
1.000
Persistence2139d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1022 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8524 | 69.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0902 | 4.89*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2139 days
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