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Rana Sugars Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

7,557.59

increased by 1,308.45

1 Week

5,848.43

decreased by 400.71

1 Month

4,646.17

decreased by 1,602.97

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Rana Sugars Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2007 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2139 trading days (~8.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 88% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2139 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 88% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
1.01
αARCH0.1022
6.39***
βGARCH0.8524
69.18***
γleverage0.0902
4.89***

1.000

Persistence

2139d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1022
6.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8524
69.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0902
4.89***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2139 days