V-Lab
Polyplex (Thailand) Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,130.52
increased by 2,750.30
1 Week
2,723.98
increased by 343.76
1 Month
1,623.67
decreased by 756.55
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9607 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1419 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8581 | 1.44 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0065 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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