Prosafe Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
6,290.38
decreased by 57.14
1 Week
5,430.16
decreased by 917.36
1 Month
6,286.22
decreased by 61.30
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8368 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2086 | 9.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7858 | 39.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0337 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 0.1081 | 3.17*** |
| γ3 | -0.0974 | -4.39*** |
| γ4 | 0.0081 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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