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Prosafe Se Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4,709.00

increased by 230.07

1 Week

4,013.95

decreased by 464.98

1 Month

5,376.94

increased by 898.01

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Prosafe Se ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 11, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 45% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
8.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1378
29.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8314
231.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0616
5.69***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days