Prosafe Se ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,613.71
1 Week
4,680.52
1 Month
5,644.78
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2264 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7933 | 200.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0721 | -1.09 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3647 | 9.22*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9976 | 1,549.00*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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