V-Lab
Prizor Viztech Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
6,841.98
increased by 5,296.30
1 Week
2,755.49
increased by 1,209.81
1 Month
1,778.80
increased by 233.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4229 | 4.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1254 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8007 | 10.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8586 | -3.03*** |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4229 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1254 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8007 | 10.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8586 | -3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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