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V-Lab

Royal Plus Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

58,455.59

decreased by 7,297.67

1 Week

65,108.38

decreased by 644.88

1 Month

60,503.61

decreased by 5,249.65

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Royal Plus Pcl ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 20, 2022 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 600 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~600 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8741
3.92***
αARCH0.2478
9.36***
βGARCH0.7511
28.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.1292
1.13

0.999

Persistence

600d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8741
3.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2478
9.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7511
28.14***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.1292
1.13

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

600 days