V-Lab
Pfizer Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
9.12
decreased by 0.01
1 Week
9.18
increased by 0.05
1 Month
10.75
increased by 1.62
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 452 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~452 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0191 | 10.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0494 | 14.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9491 | 268.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.65 |
0.998
Persistence452d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0191 | 10.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0494 | 14.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 268.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
452 days
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