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V-Lab

Pradeep Metals Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

13,354.18

increased by 9,593.84

1 Week

6,150.18

increased by 2,389.84

1 Month

4,299.47

increased by 539.13

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pradeep Metals ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5060
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4914
5.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3582
7.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4107
-0.57
γ2-0.4887
-0.37
γ31.9274
1.48
γ4-2.2725
-2.04**
γ53.0829
3.92***
γ6-4.6591
-4.12***
γ74.6475
4.92***
γ8-2.2992
-4.33***
γ91.3401
3.78***
γ10-3.5584
-8.56***

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days