V-Lab
Pradeep Metals Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13,354.18
increased by 9,593.84
1 Week
6,150.18
increased by 2,389.84
1 Month
4,299.47
increased by 539.13
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5060 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4914 | 5.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3582 | 7.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4107 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.4887 | -0.37 |
| γ3 | 1.9274 | 1.48 |
| γ4 | -2.2725 | -2.04** |
| γ5 | 3.0829 | 3.92*** |
| γ6 | -4.6591 | -4.12*** |
| γ7 | 4.6475 | 4.92*** |
| γ8 | -2.2992 | -4.33*** |
| γ9 | 1.3401 | 3.78*** |
| γ10 | -3.5584 | -8.56*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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