V-Lab
Pradeep Metals Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
7,193.09
increased by 2,300.02
1 Week
5,232.60
increased by 339.53
1 Month
4,997.25
increased by 104.18
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0223 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 146.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0905 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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