PAK-Qatar Family Takaful Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
10,267.79
increased by 6,818.36
1 Week
4,844.21
increased by 1,394.78
1 Month
5,798.85
increased by 2,349.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~38508 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3778 | 1.65* |
| αARCH | 0.3596 | 0.45 |
| βGARCH | 0.6404 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.9213 | -0.08 |
1.000
Persistence38508d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3778 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3596 | 0.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6404 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.9213 | -0.08 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
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