PAK-Qatar Family Takaful Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,276.36
1 Week
1,821.32
1 Month
5,024.08
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.1353 | 73.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9274 | 1,462.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.1353 | -61.97*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0004 | 2.36** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0001 | 6.62*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0308 | 29.87*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 73.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9274 | 1,462.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1353 | -61.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0004 | 2.36** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0001 | 6.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0308 | 29.87*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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