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V-Lab

Optivalue TEK Consulting Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

8,612.54

increased by 6,581.00

1 Week

3,070.23

increased by 1,038.69

1 Month

4,415.21

increased by 2,383.67

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Optivalue TEK Consulting Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5726
4.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3106
3.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5549
4.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-10.7990
-6.80***

Persistence:

0.865

Half-life:

5 days