V-Lab
Optivalue TEK Consulting Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
8,612.54
increased by 6,581.00
1 Week
3,070.23
increased by 1,038.69
1 Month
4,415.21
increased by 2,383.67
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5726 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3106 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5549 | 4.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -10.7990 | -6.80*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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