V-Lab
Optivalue TEK Consulting Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
22,997.72
1 Week
5,576.31
1 Month
3,838.10
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1174 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2783 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0098 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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