V-Lab
Optima Bank S A Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
5,512.00
increased by 652.88
1 Week
5,286.79
increased by 427.67
1 Month
5,711.70
increased by 852.58
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3259 | 8.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2064 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5752 | 6.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0112 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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