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V-Lab

Optima Bank S A Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

5,512.00

increased by 652.88

1 Week

5,286.79

increased by 427.67

1 Month

5,711.70

increased by 852.58

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Optima Bank S A ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3259
8.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2064
4.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5752
6.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0112
-0.14

Persistence:

0.782

Half-life:

3 days