V-Lab
Optima Bank S A Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,680.33
1 Week
4,837.69
1 Month
4,942.40
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 48% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 9.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8879 | 180.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0433 | 2.27** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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