V-Lab
Indonesia Prima Prop (Pt) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9,738.17
increased by 6,301.56
1 Week
5,379.89
increased by 1,943.28
1 Month
3,695.92
increased by 259.31
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 344 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5721 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2706 | 7.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7273 | 21.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -12.8422 | -2.35** |
| γ2 | 20.6948 | 2.50** |
| γ3 | -10.9500 | -1.49 |
| γ4 | -2.4331 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 15.2802 | 2.54** |
| γ6 | -20.1361 | -5.41*** |
| γ7 | 17.2848 | 4.41*** |
| γ8 | -6.9118 | -1.18 |
| γ9 | -2.5639 | -0.41 |
| γ10 | -5.4146 | -0.72 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
344 days
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