V-Lab
Oculis Holding AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
3,427.34
decreased by 1,275.81
1 Week
5,481.76
increased by 778.61
1 Month
5,908.84
increased by 1,205.69
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2391 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3308 | 1.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6111 | 4.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -69.3629 | -2.96*** |
| γ2 | 109.4984 | 3.39*** |
| γ3 | -61.0703 | -4.74*** |
| γ4 | 32.8281 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -9.6339 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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