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V-Lab

Oculis Holding AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

5,425.28

decreased by 1,099.56

1 Week

8,643.14

increased by 2,118.30

1 Month

15,756.82

increased by 9,231.98

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Oculis Holding AG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 23, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3024
1.21
αARCH0.3595
2.02**
βGARCH0.6010
5.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-61.5403
-2.71***
γ2100.1482
3.07***
γ3-60.5257
-3.99***
γ438.1604
3.60***
γ5-24.3745
-2.00**

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3024
1.21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3595
2.02**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6010
5.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-61.5403
-2.71***
γ2100.1482
3.07***
γ3-60.5257
-3.99***
γ438.1604
3.60***
γ5-24.3745
-2.00**

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days