V-Lab
Oculis Holding AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,425.28
decreased by 1,099.56
1 Week
8,643.14
increased by 2,118.30
1 Month
15,756.82
increased by 9,231.98
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3024 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.3595 | 2.02** |
| βGARCH | 0.6010 | 5.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -61.5403 | -2.71*** |
| γ2 | 100.1482 | 3.07*** |
| γ3 | -60.5257 | -3.99*** |
| γ4 | 38.1604 | 3.60*** |
| γ5 | -24.3745 | -2.00** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3024 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3595 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6010 | 5.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -61.5403 | -2.71*** |
| γ2 | 100.1482 | 3.07*** |
| γ3 | -60.5257 | -3.99*** |
| γ4 | 38.1604 | 3.60*** |
| γ5 | -24.3745 | -2.00** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
Other Oculis Holding AG Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities