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V-Lab

Neto Malinda Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026

1 Day

5,402.41

decreased by 414.03

1 Week

5,499.39

decreased by 317.05

1 Month

5,139.41

decreased by 677.03

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Neto Malinda ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 2008 to Jul 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2190
5.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0872
7.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9094
83.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.2375
-4.36***
γ20.4493
5.53***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

204 days