V-Lab
Neto Malinda Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,402.41
decreased by 414.03
1 Week
5,499.39
decreased by 317.05
1 Month
5,139.41
decreased by 677.03
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 2008 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2190 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0872 | 7.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9094 | 83.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.2375 | -4.36*** |
| γ2 | 0.4493 | 5.53*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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