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Nations Trust Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

4,816.07

increased by 3,667.25

1 Week

2,381.19

increased by 1,232.37

1 Month

1,296.87

increased by 148.05

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nations Trust Bank Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5864
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1545
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8455
0.02
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ11.0410
0.00
γ2-2.6365
0.00
γ32.4945
0.09
γ4-1.3333
-0.04
γ50.8906
0.05
γ6-0.9485
-0.55
γ70.7158
0.04
γ8-0.6674
-0.04
γ91.1632
0.19

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days