V-Lab
Nations Trust Bank Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
4,816.07
increased by 3,667.25
1 Week
2,381.19
increased by 1,232.37
1 Month
1,296.87
increased by 148.05
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5864 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1545 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8455 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 1.0410 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -2.6365 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.4945 | 0.09 |
| γ4 | -1.3333 | -0.04 |
| γ5 | 0.8906 | 0.05 |
| γ6 | -0.9485 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 0.7158 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.6674 | -0.04 |
| γ9 | 1.1632 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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