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Nations Trust Bank Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

1,615.39

increased by 874.84

1 Week

1,031.20

increased by 290.65

1 Month

885.49

increased by 144.94

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 02:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nations Trust Bank Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 146% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0376
2.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9350
145.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0550
2.84***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-