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Pt Charnic Capital Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

10,665.60

increased by 4,621.66

1 Week

7,098.70

increased by 1,054.76

1 Month

8,948.65

increased by 2,904.71

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Pt Charnic Capital ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 3, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4253
1.98**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3159
7.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6769
15.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-8.6450
-1.99**
γ212.1924
1.80*
γ3-11.8439
-2.91***
γ412.5595
4.47***
γ5-3.9545
-1.11
γ64.6078
1.13
γ7-9.5861
-3.18***
γ84.6737
1.69*
γ9-3.8601
-0.85
γ1015.8208
1.96**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days