V-Lab
Pt Charnic Capital Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
10,665.60
increased by 4,621.66
1 Week
7,098.70
increased by 1,054.76
1 Month
8,948.65
increased by 2,904.71
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4253 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3159 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6769 | 15.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -8.6450 | -1.99** |
| γ2 | 12.1924 | 1.80* |
| γ3 | -11.8439 | -2.91*** |
| γ4 | 12.5595 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -3.9545 | -1.11 |
| γ6 | 4.6078 | 1.13 |
| γ7 | -9.5861 | -3.18*** |
| γ8 | 4.6737 | 1.69* |
| γ9 | -3.8601 | -0.85 |
| γ10 | 15.8208 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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