V-Lab
Pt Charnic Capital ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
8,482.20
1 Week
7,382.75
1 Month
10,430.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1816 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6373 | 0.80 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1816 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5647 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4353 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.728
Half-life:
2 days
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