V-Lab
Neurogene Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
7,393.84
increased by 1,503.55
1 Week
6,107.67
increased by 217.38
1 Month
5,214.33
decreased by 675.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 237 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~237 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9154 | 6.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1983 | 17.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7988 | 66.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0224 | -1.75* |
0.997
Persistence237d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9154 | 6.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1983 | 17.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7988 | 66.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0224 | -1.75* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
237 days
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