V-Lab
CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,688.47
increased by 31.17
1 Week
3,532.28
decreased by 125.02
1 Month
4,200.48
increased by 543.18
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9956 | 2.24** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1691 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7179 | 13.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0516 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.0754 | -3.15*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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