V-Lab
CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,681.45
1 Week
3,572.53
1 Month
4,227.64
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1586 trading days (~6.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1457 | 0.98 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7087 | 91.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2904 | 1.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3383 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0577 | 1.22 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9423 | 46.49*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1586 days
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