V-Lab
CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2,618.30
decreased by 686.01
1 Week
4,135.62
increased by 831.31
1 Month
3,536.62
increased by 232.31
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7909 | 12.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1858 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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