Skip to main content
V-Lab

NCBA Group Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

524.03

decreased by 29.95

1 Week

594.67

increased by 40.69

1 Month

630.37

increased by 76.39

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NCBA Group Plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 10, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 586 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7431
2.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
5.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9393
108.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0851
0.25
γ2-0.2168
-0.60
γ30.0886
0.62
γ40.1487
1.05
γ5-0.1015
-0.61
γ6-0.0292
-0.16
γ70.0858
0.46
γ8-0.4340
-1.85*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

586 days