V-Lab
NCBA Group Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
524.03
decreased by 29.95
1 Week
594.67
increased by 40.69
1 Month
630.37
increased by 76.39
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 10, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 586 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7431 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9393 | 108.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0851 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | -0.2168 | -0.60 |
| γ3 | 0.0886 | 0.62 |
| γ4 | 0.1487 | 1.05 |
| γ5 | -0.1015 | -0.61 |
| γ6 | -0.0292 | -0.16 |
| γ7 | 0.0858 | 0.46 |
| γ8 | -0.4340 | -1.85* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
586 days
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