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NCBA Group Plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

765.74

decreased by 23.52

1 Week

813.86

increased by 24.60

1 Month

880.04

increased by 90.78

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NCBA Group Plc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 10, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 271% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0153
13.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9639
518.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0416
5.43***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-