V-Lab
Naseej International Trading Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
10,401.05
increased by 7,319.03
1 Week
4,808.10
increased by 1,726.08
1 Month
3,297.90
increased by 215.88
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2010 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1759 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2364 | 10.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7472 | 29.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3653 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 0.3122 | 0.44 |
| γ3 | 0.7090 | 1.45 |
| γ4 | -5.0970 | -2.63*** |
| γ5 | 12.8434 | 2.34** |
| γ6 | -13.9282 | -2.43** |
| γ7 | 6.9353 | 3.41*** |
| γ8 | -2.2236 | -2.13** |
| γ9 | 1.4242 | 0.97 |
| γ10 | -0.2280 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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