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Naseej International Trading Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

4,140.39

increased by 929.83

1 Week

3,592.97

increased by 382.41

1 Month

2,507.39

decreased by 703.17

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Naseej International Trading ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 27, 2010 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.53
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
4.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8429
429.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2274
4.42***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-