V-Lab
Mawana Sugars Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
6,205.78
decreased by 782.89
1 Week
4,644.46
decreased by 2,344.21
1 Month
3,004.07
decreased by 3,984.60
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1147 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8771 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0423 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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