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V-Lab

Mawana Sugars Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

826.03

increased by 94.00

1 Week

785.87

increased by 53.84

1 Month

939.73

increased by 207.70

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mawana Sugars Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4142
0.06
αARCH0.1194
0.02
βGARCH0.8806
0.11
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0163
-0.01

1.000

Persistence

173286d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4142
0.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1194
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8806
0.11
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0163
-0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days