V-Lab
Mawana Sugars Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
878.87
increased by 49.33
1 Week
939.23
increased by 109.69
1 Month
2,132.47
increased by 1,302.93
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9830 | |
| αARCH | 0.1267 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8733 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0550 | |
| γ2 | 0.0945 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9830 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1267 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0550 | |
| γ2 | 0.0945 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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