V-Lab
Mawana Sugars Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
7,817.13
1 Week
5,862.19
1 Month
3,711.63
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1603 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8622 | 108.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1601 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0012 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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